Handset sales seen at 580 mln units in 2004-survey
全球2004年手机销量将达5.8亿部

Wednesday March 10, 6:01 am ET
By Lucas van Grinsven, European Technology Correspondent

(中文导读)
　　根据3月10日公布的一项调查显示，全球2004年的手机销量将比预期增长得更快，而作为市场最大的手机厂商诺基亚多年以来首次市场份额下降。市场调研公司Gartner的调查显示，全球2003年的手机销量达到了5.2亿部，销售额为1000亿美元，2003年的手机销量比此前的预期多出了1千万部。

　　目前预计全球2004年的手机销量将达到5.8亿部，比1个月前的预计高出了2千万部。这主要出于彩屏手机在发达国家市场和廉价手机在发展中国家市场的需求持续增加。

LONDON, Mach 10 (Reuters) - Global sales of mobile phones could grow even faster than forecast in 2004 after a stronger than expected 2003 when market leader Nokia (NOK1V.HE) lost ground for the first time in many years, a survey found on Wednesday. Sales of handsets, the world's biggest consumer electronics market worth almost $100 billion a year, amounted to 520 million units in 2003, almost 10 million more than initial estimates last month, market research group Gartner found.

It now expects some 580 million phones to be sold in 2004, 20 million more than predicted last month, amid stellar demand for phones with colour screens in developed markets and cheap handsets in emerging markets like China, India and Russia.

Last year's sales are between 20 and 50 million units higher than estimates by various handset makers themselves.

"We've seen much stronger than expected replacement sales, and there was a surge in demand in emerging markets which was much better than expected," said Gartner analyst Ben Wood.

By underestimating market demand, some handset vendors such as Japanese-Swedish joint venture Sony Ericsson (Tokyo:6758.T - News; Stockholm:ERICb.ST - News) and U.S.-based Motorola (NYSE:MOT - News) were not able to meet demand for their products, he added. The respective number five and two both lost some market share in 2003. But the highest profile loser was Nokia, the Finnish behemoth which sells more than twice as many phones as its nearest rival. Its market share dropped to 34.7 percent from 35.1 percent in 2002, the first annual decline in many years.

"Nokia is facing competitive pressures on all fronts," Wood said.

NOKIA UNDER PRESSURE

In emerging markets, Nokia was feeling the heat from Germany's Siemens (XETRA:SIEGn.DE - News), the world's number four handset maker, which attacked Nokia's core market of budget phones where the Finnish giant generates the volumes which give it scale economies.

Some basic handsets were now available at prices below $40 in emerging markets, down from between $50 to $70 last year.

"Siemens has the most aggressive prices in the market. They've seemed to accept lower margins on lower priced products," Wood said. On the other end of the spectrum of more expensive phones with colour screens and built-in cameras, Nokia was getting a run for its money from third-placed South Korea's Samsung (KSE:005930.KS - News), Motorola, Sony Ericsson, but also smaller players like France's Sagem (Paris:SAGM.PA - News) and Japan's Sharp (Tokyo:6753.T - News).

"It's all incremental, and eating away market share from Nokia," Wood said, adding Nokia had lost ground in Western Europe but had become the top seller in North America where it used to be much weaker and where it has fixed its model line-up.

Gartner measures handset sales to consumers, giving a better understanding of real consumer demand than other research groups which measure bulk sales to distributors.

Motorola's 2003 market share slipped to 14.5 percent from 16.9 percent a year earlier. Samsung climbed to 10.5 percent from 9.7 percent, Siemens grew to 8.4 percent from eight percent with particular strength in the second half year.

Sony Ericsson slipped to 5.1 percent from 5.4 percent, but had recently created hit models with products such as the T610 camera phone. Top five challenger LG Electronics (KSE:066570.KS - News) from South Korea ended at five percent, up from 3.2 percent.